Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point while signaling another hike later this year. The benchmark rate had peaked at 5.25 to 5.5 percent in 2023, then fell to a recent nadir of 3.5 to 3.75 percent in December 2025 before last week's increase to 3.75 to 4 percent. Even so, U.S. commercial real estate investment sales volume totaled $233.6 billion in the first half of 2026, a 14.7 percent increase from the first half of 2025 and the strongest first half since 2022.
The first quarter was especially active, with $120 billion in volume marking a 25.5 percent year-over-year increase and the highest first-quarter total in four years. An August 2026 JLL report said global direct investment carried strong momentum into the second quarter, with activity in the Americas up 26 percent and the U.S. performing strongly. Jay Neveloff, partner and chair of U.S. real estate for HSF Kramer, said clients are not focused on 25 or 50 basis point spreads, but on whether they like an asset, see value, and believe that value will increase.
One supported implication is that abundant capital is cushioning the market. The Federal Reserve reported household and nonprofit net worth rose by $12.8 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, part of an 11-quarter streak that added $43.4 trillion to household balance sheets and pushed cumulative wealth creation since 2020 to $83.9 trillion. A February 2026 Bain & Company private equity report also cited global dry powder at $1.3 trillion. Neveloff said that with more wealth being created, the money has to go somewhere.
What remains unknown is whether this resilience can persist. The dossier does not establish how long higher inflation, oil prices past $100 a barrel, or geopolitical turmoil will continue, nor whether future Fed moves will alter investor behavior. The evidence is limited to one full-text source, so sector-wide conclusions about pricing, financing terms, or property-level performance are not supported.