Duke's $10B Equity Bet Hinges on Data Center Demand Critics Call 'Exaggerated'

Duke Energy is staking $10 billion of shareholder equity on a single proposition: that the data center buildout in its six-state territory will materialize into the kind of sustained load growth that justifies the industry's largest regulated capital plan.

President and CEO Harry Sideris told analysts that the company is spending more than $1 billion a month to meet “record demand,” with 5 GW of data centers already under construction and 7.8 GW of electric service agreements signed. Duke expects that figure to reach 15.4 GW by mid-2027, underpinning plans to add 15 GW of new generation by 2031—roughly half of it new gas, paired with 4.5 GW of battery storage.

Financing that buildout requires $10 billion in common equity from 2027 to 2030, on top of debt. The company has already priced $600 million in at-the-market offerings to de-risk future needs. The equity raise dilutes current shareholders, but the deeper bet is on the conversion of signed agreements into actual megawatt-hours. Without it, the new gas plants become an expensive fixed-cost burden spread over a smaller rate base.

That fear is already being articulated in North Carolina, where advocacy group NC Warn says Duke testimony in two rate cases revealed electricity use has declined despite population growth, the utility exaggerated its own load projections, and it is actively recruiting large-load customers to justify its spending plan. NC Warn called the conduct “a scandal and crime” as the utility seeks $1.1 billion in additional base rate revenue over 2027 and 2028. Duke is spending $1 billion a month on a bet that electricity demand from data centers will justify a gas plant building spree—a bet that critics call a 'scandal and crime.'

The regulatory picture is no cleaner in Indiana, where the ratepayer advocate alleges Duke over-collected more than $89 million after a rate hike last year, and the governor just fired the utility commission's chairman amid rate-hike backlash. Duke maintains its rates were collected in compliance with the 2025 commission order.

The critical number to watch is how many of those 15.4 GW in expected agreements turn into electrons consumed—and whether regulators let Duke's customers foot the bill if the demand fails to show up.