Since May, the gasoline crack spread in New York Harbor has averaged about $1 per gallon higher than in 2025, when the crack spread peaked around 60 cents per gallon. Crack spreads measure refining profitability by subtracting the spot price of a gallon of crude oil from the wholesale price of a gallon of refined product. The elevated gasoline crack spread is primarily the result of tight gasoline supplies globally, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Tight gasoline supplies stem from disruptions to global refining activities in Russia, China, and the Middle East. These disruptions have raised the cost of imported gasoline and increased demand for U.S. gasoline exports. Since March, total U.S. gasoline imports, including finished gasoline and blending components, have been 32% below the five-year average from 2021 to 2025. The East Coast and West Coast, which rely on imports to supplement local production, have been partially offset by shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast under limited Jones Act waivers.
The resulting retail price for regular-grade gasoline was $4.07 per gallon on the Monday before Labor Day. Regional prices varied, with the West Coast averaging $5.21 per gallon and the Rocky Mountains $4.27 per gallon. The Midwest averaged $3.85 per gallon, the East Coast $3.94 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast $3.62 per gallon. Distillate fuel oil and jet fuel crack spreads are even higher than gasoline, and U.S. refiners have shifted yields to maximize distillate and jet fuel production. In the week ending August 28, U.S. distillate inventories were 14% below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 6% below average.
What remains unknown is how long the global refining disruptions will persist and whether U.S. import levels will recover. The EIA analysis does not specify the duration of the supply constraints or the potential for additional Jones Act waivers to ease coastal supply pressures. Future pump prices will depend on the pace of refinery restarts abroad and the extent to which U.S. refiners continue prioritizing distillate and jet fuel over gasoline.