The MBA expects 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 7% through all of next year. That's a long time to pay that much for money.
The personal saving rate has been drifting down.
The MBA expects two more Federal Reserve hikes, one in December and another in the first quarter of 2027. The 10-year Treasury touched about 5.36%, its highest level in 24 years.
The MBA expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average about 7.25% this quarter. Fratantoni pointed to heavy government borrowing and roughly $1 trillion in expected capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure through 2027.
The spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries has widened to about 220 basis points.
I read this as a capital cycle where heavy borrowing and AI spending keep long-term rates elevated, squeezing households and potentially slowing the economy.
If your income isn't keeping up with the cost of living, how long can you wait for rates to fall?