The September 2026 private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities hard maturity cohort totals $2.74 billion across 109 loan pieces comprising 100 whole loans, down from August's $5.49 billion of hard maturities. Despite the smaller size, the share of balance likely to face high refinance risk rose to 26.96% from 18.13% in August, based on a severely impaired current debt yield below 6.0%. Of the maturing balance with a severely impaired debt yield, 93.05% is performing today, making that the most likely source of new delinquencies as these loans reach maturity.
The refinance math shows a cohort with weaker credit metrics than the prior month. In total, 26.22% of the cohort balance is in special servicing approaching hard maturity, with office accounting for 74.94% of all special-servicing balance in the cohort. Retail has 12.17% of its maturing balance in special servicing. Non-performing balance fell to $98.7 million in September from $136.6 million but rose as a share of the cohort from 2.49% to 3.60%. Special-servicing balance fell from $1.38 billion to $719.5 million but rose as a share from 25.17% to 26.22%. Of the $98.7 million currently non-performing, $51.4 million carries a debt yield below 6.0%, while the remaining $47.3 million is a maturity-driven default on a loan whose debt yield is above 8.0%.
Property type composition sharpens the risk signal. Office represents the largest share of September hard maturities, followed by retail and mixed-use. However, retail loans account for 56.96% of the total balance carrying a severely impaired debt yield, compared with 28.37% for office. Retail's debt yield distribution is severe or absent, with nothing in between: 58.56% of retail balance sits below both the 8.0% and 6.0% debt yield thresholds. Two loans account for $375.0 million of the impaired $421.4 million: a single-asset, single-borrower New York retail loan carrying a 4.86% debt yield, and a super-regional mall split across three pieces at 5.69% debt yield. Both remain current and neither is in special servicing, but both loans represent significant refinance risk. Office impairment is broader but shallower, with 45.67% of its balance below 8.0% debt yield and 14.21% below 6.0%, meaning most impaired office balance still sits in the band where a paydown, rather than a restructuring, could lead to a clean refinancing.
The September cohort is far less concentrated than August. The five largest maturities account for $1.02 billion, or 37.00% of the total, down from 52.65% in August, so the month's outcomes depend on a wider set of loans. Two of those five large loans are 2021-vintage floating-rate SASB loans that reached the end of an extension ladder rather than a scheduled balloon payment at maturity, and both are current. Neither represents existing distress, and both face resolution decisions in September. The four non-performing loan pieces sit across three whole loans and three sectors: two pari passu office pieces of a single loan totaling $47.3 million, one hospitality loan at $44.5 million, and one retail loan at $6.9 million.
The forward signal remains the $688.3 million of severely impaired maturing balance that is still performing ahead of hard maturity. This analysis builds on Trepp's recent CMBS Hard Maturity Playbook, which found that $76.6 billion in hard maturities are due in 2026, exceeding either of the prior two years, with a back-loaded profile as 39% fall in Q4 alone. Notably, 36% of these loans have a debt yield at or below 8%, the segment most likely to face refinancing friction, with office, retail, and multifamily carrying the highest concentration of this exposure. The September cohort shows a smaller maturity month carrying a weaker refinance risk profile, with debt yield remaining the binding constraint at maturity.